Shortening the Feedback Loop
by Annie Duke • Author, Special Partner at First Round Capital
Former professional poker player (World Series of Poker winner) turned decision science expert and consultant.
🎙️ Episode Context
Annie Duke joins Lenny to dismantle common decision-making misconceptions. She explains why intuition needs to be made explicit, why meetings should never be used for idea discovery, and how to shorten 'long' feedback loops in venture capital and product management. She also dives into the psychology of quitting, introducing concepts like kill criteria to overcome sunk cost fallacy.
Problem It Solves
The inability to learn from decisions in real-time and the tendency to hide behind 'long-term vision' to avoid facing poor performance.
Framework Overview
A mental model to debunk the idea that some decisions (like VC investments or long-term product bets) require years to evaluate. It involves identifying short-term proxies that correlate with long-term success.
🌳 Framework Hierarchy
When to Use
Venture capital investing, long-cycle R&D, brand building campaigns.
Common Mistakes
Assuming you have to wait for the final exit/outcome to judge decision quality; ignoring interim signals like Series A funding or retention rates.
Real World Example
Instead of waiting 10 years for an exit, First Round looks at whether a seed investment secures Series A funding (a necessary condition) to judge decision quality within ~18 months.
The way you choose to shorten the feedback loop is to say, what are the things that are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire?
— Annie Duke