Fish Where the Fish Are
by Andrew Wilkinson • Co-founder and CEO at Tiny
Co-founder of Metalab and Tiny (often called the Berkshire Hathaway of the internet), which owns over 40 profitable businesses including Dribble, AeroPress, and Letterboxd.
🎙️ Episode Context
Andrew Wilkinson discusses his journey from barista to building a holding company worth hundreds of millions. He shares frameworks for selecting startup ideas by avoiding hyper-competitive markets, his philosophy on 'lazy leadership' to scale businesses without burnout, and the specific criteria Tiny uses to acquire 'un-mess-up-able' companies. He also dives into the impact of AI on knowledge work and his personal journey with wealth, happiness, and mental health.
Problem It Solves
Prevents first-time founders from failing by entering saturated markets where margins are crushed by competition.
Framework Overview
A strategy derived from Charlie Munger that advises entrepreneurs to avoid hyper-competitive markets ('crowded ponds') and instead seek out niches where there is high demand but low competition ('forest ponds').
📊 Decision Matrix
The Sweet Spot (Target)
High Fish / Low Fishermen (Niche Software, Boring Services)
The Bloodbath (Avoid)
High Fish / High Fishermen (AI, Cafes, Ride-sharing)
The Graveyard
Low Fish / High Fishermen (Bad Business Models)
The Desert
Low Fish / Low Fishermen (Obscure Hobbies)
When to Use
During the ideation phase of a startup or when pivoting a business model.
Common Mistakes
Thinking 'I can do it better' in a market where many others have repeatedly failed (e.g., starting a restaurant or bar without experience).
Real World Example
Andrew's friend starting a grease trap cleaning business for restaurants (high demand, low competition) vs. starting the restaurant itself (high competition, low margin).
If you're a fisherman and you see a large pond and all around the pond, there's a whole bunch of fishermen... you actually want to walk off into the forest and find a small fishing hole with lots of fish and very little competition.
— Andrew Wilkinson