by Tom Conrad
Viewing a company not just as an art form of features and design, but as a mathematical formula that converts capital into returns. Success requires understanding the macro equation (CAC, LTV, market size) before optimizing the 'leaf nodes' (specific conversion funnels).
Core Principles
- 1.Model the whole business: Create a spreadsheet describing how investment turns into returns.
- 2.Identify leverage points: Don't obsess over low-impact micro-optimizations (leaf nodes) if the core math is off.
- 3.Validate the formula early: Ensure the required acquisition/retention numbers are historically probable, not just theoretically possible.
"If the equation is fundamentally broken... no amount of iteration and execution can get you out of the failed outputs."