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Dan Hockenmaier

Episode #68

Head of Strategy and Analytics

Faire

📈Growth & Metrics🎯Product Strategy

📝Full Transcript

13,857 words
Dan Hockenmaier (00:00:00): One lesson I learned the hard way a bunch of times on this is that if you think about running a marketplace, you're basically like a gardener. You have to have a very light touch. If you're building a SaaS business, you're a construction worker, you're building the product and the features and selling it, and it's this very linear thing. For a marketplace, you're like messing with this ecosystem that you don't actually really understand how it works. And sometimes you might do something over here which drives this long-term effect two months later, and then you're going to be pulling your hair out two months later trying to figure out what you did over here that made that thing happen. So I think that the main advice is like to tread lightly. When you're messing with the core incentives or mechanisms of a marketplace, be very careful, particularly if you've got something that's working on playing with those variables. Dan Hockenmaier (00:00:45): Welcome to Lenny's podcast. I'm Lenny and my goal here is to help you get better at the craft of building and growing products. I interview world class product leaders and growth experts to learn from their hard won experiences building and scaling today's most successful companies. Today my guest is Dan Hockenmaier. I venture to say that Dan has worked on more marketplace startups than anyone else in the world, including helping scale Thumbtack in the early days, currently working at Faire where he is head of strategy and analytics and, through his consulting business, Faces One, where he's helped dozens of startups figure out their growth models and growth strategies. Dan Hockenmaier (00:01:20): Dan hasn't shared a ton of his insights and experiences publicly, so I was really excited to chat with him and to dig into all the things that go into building a marketplace business along with coming up with your growth model. This episode gets very deep into the weeds and so, if you're working on a g...

💡 Key Takeaways

  • 1Treat marketplace management like gardening, not construction; ecosystems require a light touch and awareness of second-order effects.
  • 2Do not use growth models for financial forecasting; use them as a 'common currency' to compare trade-offs between disparate product teams during planning.
  • 3Retention is the highest leverage metric in a model, but it is rarely moved by 'resurrection' campaigns; it is moved by fixing the early user experience.
  • 4True marketplace liquidity is defined by reliability (search-to-fill rate) rather than just volume.
  • 5When expanding a marketplace, prioritize 'adjacency' (ease of operational overlap) over total addressable market (TAM).
  • 6Avoid the 'Unbundling Fallacy'; verticalization only works if the niche has high frequency, high order value, or a self-contained network.
  • 7Marketplace unit economics improve with scale (CAC down, LTV up), whereas SaaS economics often degrade as you reach saturation.

📚Methodologies (4)

The Zero-Based Growth Model

by Dan Hockenmaier

📈 Growth & Metrics

A mathematical representation of the business that links inputs (traffic, conversion, retention) to outputs (contribution margin). Unlike financial forecasts, this model is used to normalize the potential impact of different teams into a single value metric.

Core Principles

  • 1.Step 1: Build the 'Macro Model' covering the core loop: Acquisition Channels, Retention Curves, and Monetization/Unit Economics.
  • 2.Step 2: Create 'Mini-Models' for individual product pods that link their specific north star metric (e.g., quality score) to the macro inputs.
  • 3.Step 3: Run 'Zero-Based Accounting' during planning; force teams to quantify how their initiatives impact the variables in the model.
  • +1 more...

"If you think about running a marketplace, you're basically like a gardener. You have to have a very light touch. If you're building a SaaS business, you're a construction worker."

#zero-based#growth#metrics
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📈 Growth & Metrics

A formula for calculating the true cost of customer acquisition in a two-sided marketplace by accounting for the interdependent cost of acquiring the necessary supply to service that demand.

Core Principles

  • 1.Step 1: Calculate the direct CAC for the demand side (Consumer).
  • 2.Step 2: Determine the 'Liquidity Ratio'—how many suppliers are needed to service one consumer (e.g., 0.1 drivers per rider).
  • 3.Step 3: Calculate the CAC for the supply side and multiply it by the Liquidity Ratio.
  • +2 more...

"You need to include the CAC of acquiring that customer, but also the CAC of acquiring the supply for that customer to purchase... expressed as a ratio."

#composite#marketplace#growth
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🎯 Product Strategy

A method to improve retention by identifying and eliminating the 'bad luck' scenarios in a user's first week, thereby homogenizing the onboarding experience toward the mean or better.

Core Principles

  • 1.Step 1: Segment new users by their first-week outcomes (e.g., earnings for a driver, successful purchase for a buyer).
  • 2.Step 2: Identify the bottom quartile of experiences—those who did everything right but had a bad result due to marketplace randomness (e.g., low density, bad match).
  • 3.Step 3: Implement product interventions (guarantees, subsidies, manual matching) to artificially lift these users to the average experience level.
  • +1 more...

"If you can target streamlining that experience... you pull up all those below average first experiences to average and drive much better retention curves going forward."

#early#experience#variance
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The Liquidity & Depth Audit

by Dan Hockenmaier

📈 Growth & Metrics

A framework for evaluating marketplace health by focusing on reliability (Liquidity) and share of wallet (Depth) rather than just aggregate growth.

Core Principles

  • 1.Step 1: Define Liquidity as a reliability metric specific to the user's intent (e.g., 'Search-to-Fill Rate' or 'Wait Time < 5 mins').
  • 2.Step 2: Measure Share of Wallet: What percentage of the supplier's total income or the buyer's total spend flows through the platform?
  • 3.Step 3: Prioritize depth (Share of Wallet) over breadth (New Users) to increase defensibility and reduce multi-tenanting.
  • +1 more...

"If you could tell me we could grow GMV 10% by getting 10% more customers or by getting 10% more of our current customers' wallet, I would take the latter."

#liquidity#depth#audit
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